The new year has started off with another spate of strange events and data that have created some uncertainty about the course of the economy. There was a weak fourth quarter growth number, rising inflation, another rollercoaster ride for in oil prices, political uncertainty about Iran and a massive snowstorm. Into all of this, a new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, rode into town. There’s never a dull moment for an economic forecaster.

Let’s start with the shape of the economy. If all you did was look at the weak 1.1% growth rate for the fourth quarter, you would think the sky has fallen. But that would just make you a Chicken Little.

Yes, growth was the slowest since spring 2002. The consumer took a holiday and business investment was not what it had been. So, has the economy come to a grinding halt or was the moderation in the early winter just the pause that refreshes? Probably a little of both! There really was no sector where growth was strong at the end of last year.

Although we shouldn’t fret just yet, the strength of future growth is not clear. On the positive side, we already have seen that consumer ... _CBJ